Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Wherever you press switch in EVM - it's UPA !!!

Yeah - tomorrow is a holiday for us. That's good. So lets discuss a few on politics or more so in the context of the present 13th constituency election. 16th is the result.


Whatever I've written in the Subject - I personally believe in that. Tomorrow when you're pressing the EVM buttom, you better off to know that (most likely) you're voting for UPA. I assume you're not a BJP voter. If not - it does not matter whether you would vote for Agni Kanya or the Babu ... it's the SAME. Yeah ... that's it. Hold on ....


What is all about post poll alliances? - It is like an 'Jo Jita Wohi Sikandar' situation. And supporting from outside? - umm, it's an extramarital affair ... you've fun ... but almost zero responsibility : ) Funny na? Reddies like it :)


How the 13th House would look like? Most probably - it would be a UPA led govt. So certainly Cong needs support from others. It also has some pre poll allies like M/s Banerjee. But it will certainly can not make it only depending on the poll time alies. So it needs to stop sending Mrs Gandhi and Rahul to W.B. in the last phase of campaigning. Because in politics - nobody is absolute enemy (and nobody is absolute friend, however 'precious alley' (s)he is). So who knows ... might need to look for the cell number of Mr. Karat.

Now Mr. Karat with all his majesty of wording; - is a cunning fellow and he understand politics well. I mean better than M/s Banerjee, but less that Rahul Gandhi. He knows when he will hail - both the Jadavs (Lalu and Mullu) would respond quickly (in the name of a thing called secularism). Karat won't have problem with him. I think the dethroned former CEO of Andhra Pradesh, Mr. Naidu would also join him. But the most cunning move he took during this days is that : he somehow manage to smoke with BJD leader Navin dada. And watch 'Rab nei bana di jodi' with Mayawati bahen. So total he would have around ~120-140 M.Ps under his control! I assume Cong will manage ~140 by its own. So it makes > 272. DONE.

It does not tell about our own M/s Banerjee. What she will do? Total Left Front in India would certainly have more seats than TMC. Right? My assumption is : total left seats across country would be around : ~45-50. And TMC would be ~10. So who is more precious? I assume you are passed class-I. Right?

M/s Banerjee would have no choice than to join a UPA lead govt. as Minister. An UPA govt which is led by Cong and either inside/outside supported by Left (read CPM)! Yes, - it might happen. What else she could do sitting in 'no position' (please mind this is not opposition, it is no position). So .....


You press a button to TMC - supporting UPA.

Pressing Red - supporting UPA.

Cong ... its UPA.


Happy Vote.





Monday, February 23, 2009

"Logical" Return Expectation from Indian Market

Yeah, Talking about Indian Stock Market again:) What else ......

Lets set the ground rule first. Someone says : "There is no nobel prize yet for predicting stock price of tomorrow, stting today". (S)he is right absolutely. Then what all the hoop-haaps around? Some people (like Fund Managers, News Makers, market participents) are earning their bread and some people (like me) has invested in the market (and hence 'interested'). So knowingly or unknowingly we all together trying to justofying how 'prudent' we're from the rest :) And hence all sorts of so called - 'Analysis' - be it fundamental / technical / speculation. At the end of the day - its an effort to say that I'm right.

Enough self demotivation. Lets come to the point.

Lets do some addition. No no .. it's not gonna to be a binary addition, BCD addition, will be simply arighmatic, whole number addition. + some log calculation.

Indian Economy is expected to grow at 6 to 9 % in relative terms. 'Relative' means discounting the effect of Inflation.
So if we take inflation too, it is called 'Nomimal' growth. Assuming mid term inflation would be around 6%, the yesr-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth of Indian Economy would be 9+6 = 12-15%. It means if you invest Rs100 in 'Indian Ecomony', it will becomes 115 after one year. But with this 115/-, you would able to buy goods/services for which, if you buy now you need to pay only Rs 109/- (lets hope for 9%). If not - 115 becomes 112, and 109 becomes 106. Note that this is the Real Money! - Bank Interestes are not Real/Relative, those are Nominal (i.e. Not Inflation Adjusted). Straight Hisab. Jeo ....

So what will be the Indian stock market? It's been traditionally seen that Indian Market (I mean Index, say Sensex/Nifty / BSE 500) tends to give return more than double . This is almost irrespective of bull/bear phase. When India was at 9%, 30 companies of sensex was giving ~20% return. Now we're at around 6%, sensex is almost delivering ~13% .... like this.

Now the beauti is that if we assume our Real Growth would be somewhere middle, say 7.5%. So Nomial Value will be 7.5 + 6 = 13.5%. Stock Indices will give, say just one less percent than double (like taxi meters). So ((13.5*2)-1) = 26%.

Now the beauty! - The Inflation will be deducted only once from this 26%, NOT TWICE. Because simply the adjustment has to be done only once :) .... so it becomes 26-6 = 20% - IN REALITY! So Rs 100 will becomes Rs120 and adjusted to inflation! It means with this extra Rs 20, you would actually buy a product/service that would cost 26/- one year down the line!

Now, lets say you invest Rs8300/- in Sensex. We're talking about 20%. So when it would be doubled?

pt = p(1+r)^n
16600=8300(1+0.2)^n
1.2^n = 2
n = (log2)/log1.2 = ~3.8 years!

There is another factor here. We're assuming (PE) 'Price-to-Earn' is a constant throughout 3 yrs 9 months. That wont be anyway the case. However for simplicity lets assume that.

We'll discuss the effect of PE later some times.

Have a nice day dream :)

Joe Hooooo ... India .... Stay Invested ... MORE THAN 3.8 Yrs. ....

Jai Hoe ..... FDI in Indian Movies :)


How r u ? Me is fine, specially after celebrating my 5th marriage anniversary last weekend, amids global meltdown. Got a pair of new dress from her as a token of appreciation for 'tolerating' for 5 years :)

Actually I'm kind of compelled to write this in the view of Slumdog Millenniums Oscar Yatra Festival. I do respect the movie makes and his team, including our own Rahaman saab. No doubt about their capabilities and collective team work. Jai to to them.

What I will here trying to convey is that : what actually seems we may learn from this which can somehow be correlated to the investment in Indian markets :) Weird me .... yeah I'm .... but so sorry ... what I think is that its the emergence of India on which we all are betting on. And the same is basically the reason of having Slumdog Millennium to sweep across the Oscar list.We all know - we're going through a tough time surround us. Dow is in 6 yrs low. Japan is in 15 yrs lowest in terms of contracted GDP. EU is also struggling a lot, albeit Germany. Commodity driven economies like Brazil and Russia are under tremendous pressure. China/India also struggling to keep pace of the growth expectation of the globe.Under this uncertain times, the popular belief that the next phase of afresh growth most probably will come out from China/India. This will be the next phase of drive that might lead the world out of the woods to next phase. Again, those are as it seems now. There are questions and concerns. But the probability of having so is also tangible.This is the reasons we're getting regular benches in Davos World Economic Forum, 123 deal from USA, (may be) in Security Council too. And the basis of business is to be in the right spot and right time. This will cause more and more Indian participation into global events like Oscar, Nobel and so on so for.

Who knows after a couple of years, the Oscar Ceremony will happen in the cultural capital of India, our Kolkata's Salt Lake Stadium under the ably supervision of our own Subhas-da. And all the delegates will be taken from Airport to Stadium by 2 stroke well-decorated auto rickshaws.

Jai Ho .... India ... Stay Invested dear(s).

Monday, October 20, 2008

Is Market takes a holiday in South India? Or setteled in South India for a while?

Aha .... back ...

So ... market makes below 10k at the pre weekend session. That is somewhat 1st page news of non-financial news papers. Hence bears are out of their den and waiting for another 5000 points southward journey. Come on ....... this is not a sap-ludo khala ... market seldom behave in thios fashion.

Let me explain my own view on the Indian market. This is purely my own judgment and I do have interest into the market in terms of my own money involved.

The whole World is now under financial turmoil that is known to everybody. And it is also expected that the world wide GDP growth will be substantially lowered this fiscal. Earlier it was around ~3.5% increase. It is expected that this will 'midly' slips to around ~1.5-2.0% this time, discounting all the turmoil. Now look at our beloved country. It is expected that we'll also down to somewhere slighly greater than 7%. Some optimistic people predicts it to be around 7.5%, whereas pessimistic prediction says would be 7%. Lets take 7%. So we're still one of the fastest growing economy in the World! Right! - So we'll expectedly again outperform the other developed economies by a good amount. Right? So we MUST expect the due respect from the world ...... in terms of the price to earn (PE) when booking the Indian companies shares.

Now it is expected that the Earning Per Shares of Sensex stocks will be around ~830-850 this fiscal. So if I assume India Inc. deserves a P.E of 15-18 ... it should be 12450 to 1500. And lower side : Lets assume everything is down ... even that India should expect a double digit PE, means 8300-8500 at least. So this is the downside.

Not agreed. That's upto you.





Friday, October 10, 2008

10/10/08 : Indian Market shades 7% :)

Hello Guys/Gals,

Coming back from Durga Puja - 2008 with lots of 'ashish' from Durga and with tanked down market! It's globally - we shaded 7% today. Are we heading towards 8000 in Sensex? Nodoby actually knows. That's the beauty of Market - when it goes up ... seems it will always go up. And when it moves southwards, there is no hope - all dark loomed large! However only the market is TRUTH, all others are not.

It's a nice situation. Actually nobody knows which to buy ... bcos almost all the front runners are treading at their 52 week low and in highly oversold region (something measured by Relative Strength Index, RSI which is < 20 for Nifty).

So in this 7% fall, I was wondering what can be bought for a short horizon - may be not more than a month to crack a few rupees - just bottom fishing.

Going through my own broker plus looking into some recent news, it seems people are saying market will definitely go up, not sure which sector will lead. But people are somehow convinced that market will go up. Somebody calls it a 'dead-cat' bounce, actually might be a rather short pull back kind of rally. Because we all know stock prices never moves in one direction, rather they tend to fool ourselves, go a bit opposite direction then again resume the original trend (which is downward now). Whatever it may be - a 'dead-cat', a 'pull back', a 'traders' remorse' - it seems to have a shart/very short/very very short rally which might brings something to my pocket.

Hence I was looking at how to buy market, specially in shorter term. Market means Index - say Sensex/Nifty. Now I have got the following four options:

1. Buy Stocks directly : Out of question : Costliest
2. But Index future / call option : Costlier
3. Buy some Index Mutual Funds : Good Option, typical entry load it 1% + expenses
4. Interestingly - buying ETFs which track indices.


I found the last one is more aligned towards my need. It only comes with brokarage (+STT+service tax), sums up to 0.72% (for me). No extra cost to keep it in DP. And can trade real time! So even if the rally will be pretty short (say for an hour!) - I can directly sells it.

From an investment blog, I got the compelling comparison:

"
You can buy individual stocks on an exchange. But if you wanted to buy an Index, such as the Nifty or the Sensex, you have to buy ALL the stocks of the index, in the corresponding weightage. So you may need to buy 1.6 shares of Reliance, 1.2 or ONGC etc - but obviously this does not work too well for you, since you can't buy fractional shares, and buying at a higher multiple can involve lakhs of rupees! Plus, you have to keep shifting stocks around because the weightages change daily.

A cheaper way is to buy Index futures - these are derivatives that will allow you to purchase or sell the Nifty or the Sensex, but on a future date. Unfortunately, such derivatives are only available for the short term - a maximum of three months. Additionally, index futures have a huge margin - Rs. 40,000 or above - per contract.

ETFs are very good for index purchases. Firstly, they are much cheaper than buying stocks in the index or buying futures. The Nifty BeES by Benchmark fund, for instance, costs about 1/10th the value of the nifty (per unit), which is around Rs. 420 today. The fund management is passive - almost entirely computerised - which means fund management charges are very low (less than 1%). Add that to the fact that your entry load is nil and brokerage charges are very little, you can trade an exchange traded index fund and reap benefits of overall market growth.

There are ETFs for the Nifty, the Sensex, Nifty's bank index and a few other indices.

"

Hope this is informative.


Friday, September 26, 2008

Jayabati Barik - strange case

Pretty strange ... really strange thing happens to me for last couple of days. Somebody named Jayabati Barik from ManickTala keeps calling me on my mobile number from her reliance hand set. I don't know her, neither she. Actually M/s Jayabati looking for somebody called Mr. Bhadra. I don't know who is Mr. Bhadra and what is the relation/connection of Mr Bhadra to M/s Barik. And it happens for last 3/4 days. Why so? - Actually somehow Mr. Bhadra's number matches very nicely with me except the 4th digit from last. In my number this is 8 ..... however Mr Bradra's is 0. So I assume she makes 8 always in place of 0! And I assume that she might either be elderly ... or she might have problem in eye sight. But it's somehow disturbing to get wrong calls always. Btw, she is always very gentle and I can feel an urgency into her voice ... something like she wants to contact Mr Bhadra fervently.

So being desperate, I called her today asking why she keeps on calling me knowing that I'm not Mr Bhadra. And what I heard from her over phone is somehow makes me worried!

She gets a little shop and a home at ManickTala which somebody (probably promoter) want to snatch away from her. And they attach her physically due to which she lost her eye-sight! I frozen ... I've heard those types, read those in news-paper, but never talk to some person of that sort earlier (assuming she is telling me the truth). Due to her bad vision (or no vision!) she makes a mistake when dialing. And even she does not know Mr Bhadra. She only knows that Mr. Bhadra is such a fellow in this otherwise mundane world who is eagerly help people in such situations.

Though I have not got any answer why the mistake only makes at the last digit! Why not other digits! Or may be the case she makes mistake in all the digits and different people are getting calls from her worriedly asking ... "Mr. Bhadra bolchen?" (Is that Mr Bhadra speaking?).

So I offer her a work around. We all know the middle 5 button of mob key pad is slightly high to make it comprehensive for those types of otherwise enabled persons. So I told her that when you're dialing the last digit, please make sure just the above button is not slightly high. That ensures you're dialing 0.

And on behalf of her, I put a SMS to Mr Bhadra requesting him to talk to her. I can not contact Mr. Bhadra as his phone was switched off. Don't know whether Mr. Bhadra at all called her up.

I wud be happy if at least once Mr Bhadra will call her and talk to her.

I wud be happy if I can somehow help her.



Thursday, September 25, 2008

Success Story of Interface (Green World)

Hello All,

Got some time to trash out some more idea into this blog. Bear with me please ...

Actually very recently I come across one interesting report titled as "Green Jobs:
Towards Decent Work in sustainable, low carbon world":

"
In the 1990s, Interface launched a transition from selling to leasing office carpets. It remains responsible for keeping the carpet clean, in return for a monthly fee. Regular inspections permit the company to focus on replacing just the 10–20 percent of carpet tiles that show most of the wear and tear, instead of the entire carpet, as in past practice. This more targeted replacement helps reduce the amount of material
required by some 80 percent.

Interface has also made strides toward making the carpet material more durable. It developed a new material called solenium that lasts four times as long as traditional carpets, but uses up to 40 percent less raw material and embodied energy. In addition, used carpets can be completely remanufactured into new carpets, instead of being thrown away or “down-cycled” into less valuable products.

The company’s accomplishments over the past decade are impressive. Between 1996 and 2007, the amount of waste sent to landfills from its manufacturing facilities decreased by 66 percent. During that time, the company’s “ReEntry” program reclaimed a total of 60 million pounds (about 30,000 metric tons)of carpet material that otherwise would have been sent to landfills. Meanwhile, the percentage of recycled
and bio-based materials used to manufacture products has increased from 0.5 percent to 25 percent. Energy use per square yard of carpet produced has been cut by 45 percent, and the share of renewable energy has risen from zero to 27 percent. Total greenhouse gas emissions are down 33 percent.
"

Great one ..... Just do a search in Google, you'll have the original document (of page : 376 :)) A good reading .... mind it just reading, going through it I'm not sure how much this will ultimately be applicable. Note that Kyoto Protocol is yet to be adopted on principle.

Happy Reading ....



[reference : Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon World,
UNEP/ILO/IOE/ITUC, September 2008.

The Report is available for download at:
www.unep.org/civil_society/Publications/index.asp
www.unep.org/labour_environment/features/greenjobs.asp]